The Market Maven - Week 27
Golar, Kestrel, Vestas
Golar LNG 🇺🇸 (NASDAQ: GLNG, EV: $5.2B, Last Close: $40.12)
Golar owns 3 floating LNG vessels, with a 4th and possibly 5th in the works. These are complex, multi billion dollar assets for witch Golar maintains unique engineering, construction, and operational knowledge.
These vessels come with 20 year contracts indexed to inflation and are set to do $850M of annual recurring EBITDA, with new vessels capable of bringing in $480M of additional EBIDTA.
Jonathan Tanne’s Slide Deck from the 2025 ValueX Conference (Link).
A Writeup from Value Science (Link).
A Recent VIC Writeup (Link).
Kestrel Group 🇺🇸 (NASDAQ: KG, EV: $250M, Last Close: $25.32)
Kestrel recently went public via a reverse merger. They’re a fronting carrier led by the Ledbetter family who have a long track record of success in the market, having pioneered the fronting model in the 70’s.
Instead of going through the lengthy licensing process and bearing the full regulatory burden, MGAs and reinsurers will write insurance through a fronting carrier like Kestrel, who is licensed to write insurance in all 50 states and demonstrates financial strength and credibility.
Gross written premium is running a little over $500M and management expects to hit $1B by 2026, which would translate to ~$25M in EBIDTA. Insurance brokers and MGA-related peers trade in the 15–20x EV/EBITDA range.
Vestas Wind Systems 🇩🇰 (CPH: VWS, EV: DKK €12.6B, Last Close: €12.80)
The wind turbine manufacturing business has consolidated to 4 players over the last few years with most of the smaller OEMs now bankrupt. Vestas is the largest and most profitable outside of China.
The turbine market is expected to continue growing at double digit rates into the 2030’s despite major setbacks in the US. 2025 revenue is expected to range between €18-20B, with EBIT landing between €0.7-1.4B. Recurring and higher margin service EBIT will contribute €700M of this.
Q1 2025 Investor Presentation (Link).
Ole Søeberg’s Slide Deck from the 2025 ValueX Conference (Link).
Check Out: A Letter a Day #273: Savneet Singh
Disclosure: This newsletter does not provide investment advice. Information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell securities. The author may or may not own the securities discussed.